There Was A 0.0039 Probability Of This Happening

There Was A 0.0039 Probability Of This Happening

In this IPL, I have made predictions for the result of every single game till now. My score has been 7 to 1 (7 correct predictions!). That’s shocking as it is, since my predictions haven’t been the best in recent IPL seasons. But what’s even more shocking is that every single team that I have predicted to win the game, has lost the toss.

Yes, my teams have been so unbelievably unlucky that even though all of them had a 50-50 chance of winning the toss, they all lost! This really is unfathomable! The probability of this happening is 0.0039, which means that something like this should only happen once every 25,641 tries! Well, if the IPL continues for that long, let’s expect this to never happen again! Let’s see how long this trend of my teams losing the toss keeps up.

You may have noticed though, that even though my teams have invariably lost the toss, they have won all of the games but one! I love this, because the dependency on the toss result is the thing I disliked most about the IPL and the T20 format in general. But this season, albeit with a small sample size, has proved that the toss isn’t that significant to the result anymore.

Maybe that, or teams are just being horrible decision-makers, and not choosing correctly. If we think about it, all the teams chose to field first but one, and most of them lost their games. Maybe it is time to stop choosing to field by default, and instead assess the strengths and weaknesses of your team and the opposition team.

But I’m sure the likes of Anil Kumble, Stephen Fleming, Mahela Jayawardene, Mike Hesson, Brendon McCullum, and Trevor Bayliss understand the game better than me, so…

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